During the October event period, the Escaped Moon Bunny world boss spawns at the following times:

NA West: 02:30 AM - 05:30 AM UTC
NA East: 11:30 PM - 02:30 AM UTC
South America: 10:30 PM - 01:30 AM UTC
Europe: 5:30 PM - 8:30 PM UTC
Oceania: 08:30 AM – 11:30 AM UTC

What's up with the low population?

Comments

  • WantSumCandyWantSumCandy
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    edited 10:23PM April 27, 2019
    steamspy says that ms2 has an increasing concurrent player count and an increasing total unique player count over the last 3 days and that our population is over 100,000 unique users daily with a peak user count of 1.82M (Day 1) and our total unique player's as of the 24th was under 10,000.


    note thats Steam counts which the steam population of all of Nexon's games only counts for 1% of their entire population. now assuming for ms2 being a newer game its more 35/65 (steam / nexon) that still means that our player count has increased by over 100X pre update.
  • BulbasaurBulbasaur
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    edited 7:30AM April 28, 2019
    Aruraune wrote: »
    Bulbasaur wrote: »
    I doubt the total is that high. There's a lot of bots, afk players, and hardcores who play several hours a day.

    The previous MMO I played before had lower CCU (about ~980-1.9k at times) and the actual Total Player count was about 45k for a game that's steam-only (steam spy in the past, by Nov '17) . Assuming the 65:35 ratio, even discounting possible bots it should be at least higher than 45k since overall CCU for MS2 is higher than what we see on steamcharts currently.

    After looking at this page https://arstechnica.com/gaming/2014/04/introducing-steam-gauge-ars-reveals-steams-most-popular-games/, it isn't clear how Steamspy tracks "total unique players per day" if it does it at all, although if you know they do and know how it's estimated I'd be glad to hear it. And even looking at a game like this one: https://steamspy.com/app/859580, there isn't any apparent metric that is an estimate of this.

    If you were to invent a metric, e.g. total hours per account, you'd likely have heavily biased data due to the sheer number of accounts created and you'd have to make some assumptions on the activity of each account to obtain a "total unique players per day" figure.
    Aruraune wrote: »
    Applying the same ratio for these two games that runs under similar conditions (lot of daily/dungeons/alts) the number would be pushed to 83k, there wasn't a big update back then and we have on MS2, which is why I think it can go up to ~100k max from returning players/people checking the game after the recent updates.

    Actually that'd be ~129k total "per day", but for the sake of the argument let's assume 100k total "per day" and using the same ratio gives 35k total per day on Steam. Ignoring bots, let's assume that the Steam CCU is stagnant at ~1.5k (average is lower and decreases throughout the week) and every player spends roughly the same time per day on the game. So on average do you expect there to be ~23 rotational "sets" of players, where players play a little over an hour a day? Don't you think that's a bit of a stretch? The 35k is more than 20 times compared to 1.5k, and much higher if you use the average instead and assume a certain percentage of bots, afkers, and hardcore players. I'd expect like 5 - 8 times as an upper bound but over 20 times seems far-fetched.
  • BulbasaurBulbasaur
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    edited 7:25AM April 28, 2019
    steamspy says that ms2 has an increasing concurrent player count and an increasing total unique player count over the last 3 days and that our population is over 100,000 unique users daily with a peak user count of 1.82M (Day 1) and our total unique player's as of the 24th was under 10,000.

    Unfortunately I can't see this "unique users daily" figure. I want to know how it is derived. If we assume the 65:35 ratio that means MapleStory 2 has ~286k daily unique players and the "unique users daily" to "concurrent users daily" Steam ratio is >66 which seems absurd. I highly doubt the previous update increased the player count 100 fold.
  • ArurauneAruraune
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    edited 9:18AM April 28, 2019
    Bulbasaur wrote: »
    After looking at this page https://arstechnica.com/gaming/2014/04/introducing-steam-gauge-ars-reveals-steams-most-popular-games/, it isn't clear how Steamspy tracks "total unique players per day" if it does it at all

    "Like owners this graph display people that had game attached to their profiles and also launched a game during specified time interval — either the last two weeks, or since March, 2009, when this metric was implemented.

    In my opinion this is way more reliable than “Owners”, because people could acquire a game during free weekend, as part of a bundle or as a gift and never actually launch it, but still be included in owners numbers.

    Unfortunately, this metric is unreliable for games released before March, 2009.

    Also, people tend to buy games they never ever play."
    Source: https://galyonk.in/steam-spy-the-missing-manual-cc22ef6eebe1

    I'm talking about the last 2 weeks one. The current feature is behind a paywall though.
    Bulbasaur wrote: »
    although if you know they do and know how it's estimated I'd be glad to hear it. And even looking at a game like this one: https://steamspy.com/app/859580, there isn't any apparent metric that is an estimate of this.

    Because it's behind a paywall (Audience 2 weeks).
    Bulbasaur wrote: »
    If you were to invent a metric, e.g. total hours per account, you'd likely have heavily biased data due to the sheer number of accounts created

    It's calculated based on owners that own the game *and* also launched the game within the defined period, seems pretty valid, unless we have a lot of people that launches the game and do not play.
    Bulbasaur wrote: »
    and you'd have to make some assumptions on the activity of each account to obtain a "total unique players per day" figure.

    And "per day" was never a part of discussion, if you read all my posts I never mentioned daily total and I did put emphasis on the fact that players play on the start of the week and starts playing less later until the weekly reset.
    Bulbasaur wrote: »
    Actually that'd be ~129k total "per day"

    Again, not per day. STOP F. TAKING THINGS OUT OF NOWHERE LIKE YOU DID ON THE OTHER TOPIC WE WERE TRYING TO DISCUSS, THANKS.
    Bulbasaur wrote: »
    but for the sake of the argument let's assume 100k total "per day"

    I stopped reading here just like you stopped reading mine somewhere. The rest of your argument assumes people playing during the entire week which is not the case of a "current players" measurement since you have to take into account that not everyone logs in every day of the week, especially who have jobs, study and etc.

    --

    If you want a reference post:
    https://forum.treeofsavior.com/t/server-population-november-2017/373395/15

    This is an old-ish topic (not so much) before steamspy had the paywall.

    The game had lower avg CCU (dropping below 1k) but you were still able to measure 66k "active" players with the in-game ranking mechanics in the last 30 days on that point (more than 1k journal points which required you to do things and not be just a bot grinding). And also could see about 45k from the last 2 weeks on that point.

    Again, I'll repeat myself, it's too easy to misunderstand the whole picture when looking only at CCU, especially when you've drowned yourself into the negativity that happens when CCU is actually low.

    Quoting someone from that thread:
    "This leads us to an obvious conclusion: we have many “active” players, but there’s not much to do right now, so people just log in, take part in the events, do some dailies then log out, hence the decreasing number of concurrent players."

    This applies surprisingly well to GMS2 current state.

    And again, the game wasn't getting through a period of updates like we have right now so there wasn't any group of returning players while our reddit was just flooding with "returning players" posts.

    Given similar situations, similar playstyle (dungeon, daily, logout), similar complaints and similar CCU drop I assume that it's safe to assume the Total Player Count (or Audience) is very similar as well which is what leads me to affirm, confidently, that we should have ~45-60k players (conservative measure taking only Steam as basis) up to ~80-100k max (being realistic), being even possible to be actually higher than that (being generous - getting close to the estimate from that previous website considering reddit and everything else) depending on how many players are actively checking the updates/logging to upgrade gems and catch up with Chaos Raid double drop event.

    --

    And if you want to delve deeper into CCU: I doubt the majority of population plays more than a full 1 hour daily right now.

    Optimizing sky fortress dailies like I posted here:
    https://www.reddit.com/r/MapleStory2/comments/b5wnwk/reducing_the_amount_of_work_to_farm_sky_fortress/

    Reduces your dailies there to an average of 10-15 minutes or less, especially if you're already done with a NPC. Then there are people who only complete weeklies. Our "forced" daily content was now just reduced to "maybe Guild Daily, maybe Premium Dungeon and even less likely Sky Fortress Dailies".

    And that's one of the reasons the CCU is so low, Nexon is being forgiving right now and stopping to force daily content on us which is a great thing, even though it reduces public indicators of a game's popularity, for the sake of our mental gaming health and for the sake of doing the right thing like most games should do instead of trying to produce an artificial CCU by forcing everyone to log in daily.

    This is a good basis for the future which I expect players to be able to spend more time on more rewarding things as they judge better, after weeklies are done in the new content expansions.
  • NahoNaho
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    edited 8:51AM April 28, 2019
    steamspy says that ms2 has an increasing concurrent player count and an increasing total unique player count over the last 3 days and that our population is over 100,000 unique users daily with a peak user count of 1.82M (Day 1) and our total unique player's as of the 24th was under 10,000.


    note thats Steam counts which the steam population of all of Nexon's games only counts for 1% of their entire population. now assuming for ms2 being a newer game its more 35/65 (steam / nexon) that still means that our player count has increased by over 100X pre update.

    I logged in the game last night to check how the game became while on a long break from it, and it didn't seem to me that the population increased by that much lol
  • ArurauneAruraune
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    edited 9:41AM April 28, 2019
    Naho wrote: »
    I logged in the game last night to check how the game became while on a long break from it, and it didn't seem to me that the population increased by that much lol

    I don't know how they read the graphics before posting (if it's in the correct way or even if they actually paid it [i'm not paying for the sake of arguing on forums]). But I'd assume the actual Total Player Count is very stable as of the last months with the PNL, with a decent increase after the last update but nothing huge.

    The CCU (and thus the amount of people you see online at a time/game popularity, especially when weekly content is done by most) is low yes, and it's probably going to be lower without Daily Missions. Not seeing people is something mostly bound to lack of content currently and how the game is played currently (weeklies [quest, dg etc] done, maybe dailies, logout).

    Although Total Player Count doesn't apparently show how many people you probably find for public dungeons/raids through the week and etc (which is a valid point - CCU works better for this) it does shows people who could buy stuff at market, buy cosmetics with merets here and there, do content with their guilds and with public etc.

    It seems to be a internet thing that people judges the Total Player Count basing only on what they see and on CCU from steamcharts. While these measures does have its valid merits the amount of people actually playing is usually far higher than CCU on MMOs where we can get things done and call it a day/week.

    If I could though, I'd ask people to think before spamming negativity or "game's dead" thing and for them to go search for data before assuming CCU = Total Player Count and etc.

    This not only actually drive people away (especially new and returning) but that's also one of the reasons a lot of companies have the mindset of "let's make everyone play every single day for hours, yay for MANY DAILIES" (increases CCU by forcing login "or you lose this and that") - we as players usually actually hates that and love when our time is respected and we have time for actually living IRL.
  • BulbasaurBulbasaur
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    Aruraune wrote: »
    Again, not per day. STOP F. TAKING THINGS OUT OF NOWHERE LIKE YOU DID ON THE OTHER TOPIC WE WERE TRYING TO DISCUSS, THANKS.

    Holy crap, are you this incredibly dense? GO BACK TO MY ORIGINAL COMMENT.
    Bulbasaur wrote: »
    steamcharts do not represent the whole population.

    there are several population count sites and data-mining sites that are easy to find. 99% of the players use Nexon Launcher.

    You mean a site like this? https://mmo-population.com/r/maplestory2/. Cause that's the only site I can find, unless you can link to more. Actually if you look at the https://mmo-population.com/about page, it uses Reddit subscribers and online Reddit users and a bunch of random numbers, and explicitly states "This is more a fun project than anything else. It should be obvious to anyone the reasons why this is not an accurate subscriber count for MMOs. What it is though, is an interesting (to me and maybe others) tracker of popularity based on reddit users." So if you do the math using those random formulas, yes you get ~150k depending on the peak number of online Reddit users during the day.

    I said ~150k DAILY USERS as per https://mmo-population.com/r/maplestory2/, which is CLOSE TO 170,884.

    LfgsDb2.png

    You responded:

    muEfLys.png

    What were you referring to for the first sentence??? The ~1.7m figure? No, we were talking about DAILY PLAYERS in the first place. You even said (daily). What? Don't believe me? Don't remember what you said? Take a look at the second screenshot, I even underlined the word "daily" for your reference.

    Please next time I suggest you REREAD WHAT YOU SAID before you post stupid crap like this. Now I have truly not read your points in your PREVIOUS post, but I don't think I even have the energy right now to bother with the rest of your stupid post (you probably WON'T EVEN UNDERSTAND this sentence anyway).
    Aruraune wrote: »
    And "per day" was never a part of discussion, if you read all my posts I never mentioned daily total and I did put emphasis on the fact that players play on the start of the week and starts playing less later until the weekly reset.

    LIAR.
  • ArurauneAruraune
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    edited 5:56PM April 28, 2019
    Yeah, it was actually my bad there, I got confused when reading, here you can see what I meant:
    Aruraune wrote: »
    "Like owners this graph display people that had game attached to their profiles and also launched a game during specified time interval — either the last two weeks, or since March, 2009, when this metric was implemented.

    In my opinion this is way more reliable than “Owners”, because people could acquire a game during free weekend, as part of a bundle or as a gift and never actually launch it, but still be included in owners numbers.

    Unfortunately, this metric is unreliable for games released before March, 2009.

    Also, people tend to buy games they never ever play."
    Source: https://galyonk.in/steam-spy-the-missing-manual-cc22ef6eebe1

    I'm talking about the last 2 weeks one. The current feature is behind a paywall though.

    I apologize for my confusion, I was already annoyed from discussing with you in that other thread.
  • AkanaroAkanaro
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    I'm confused. When I look at Steamspy it shows a CCU of 1.7K so where do you guys get the 100K+ numbers? o.O
  • WantSumCandyWantSumCandy
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    steamspy says that ms2 has an increasing concurrent player count and an increasing total unique player count over the last 3 days and that our population is over 100,000 unique users daily with a peak user count of 1.82M (Day 1) and our total unique player's as of the 24th was under 10,000
    Akanaro wrote: »
    I'm confused. When I look at Steamspy it shows a CCU of 1.7K so where do you guys get the 100K+ numbers? o.O

    paid options tells you actual unique audience per day. for steam.

    others use estimation websites.

    I used the paid option + some math based on the fact not everybody uses the steam launcher.
  • ÄrtÄrt
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    Naho wrote: »
    steamspy says that ms2 has an increasing concurrent player count and an increasing total unique player count over the last 3 days and that our population is over 100,000 unique users daily with a peak user count of 1.82M (Day 1) and our total unique player's as of the 24th was under 10,000.


    note thats Steam counts which the steam population of all of Nexon's games only counts for 1% of their entire population. now assuming for ms2 being a newer game its more 35/65 (steam / nexon) that still means that our player count has increased by over 100X pre update.

    I logged in the game last night to check how the game became while on a long break from it, and it didn't seem to me that the population increased by that much lol

    Because it didn't, hes just handout happy and trying to make it look like getting everything for free is the way to go. Some tiny increase is to be expected due to Welcome Back Wonders and one whole system getting butchered to be given away for free, but that increase wont have staying power in the long run. Long term there's less to do in this game. Similarly they could give away free +15 leg set + wep and it would also cause temp short increase, just to go back down later when people start questioning what's the point in continuing now that im +15.
  • WantSumCandyWantSumCandy
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    Art is a known forum troll you should ignore anything they write.
    Defraglife
  • HersikHersik
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    edited 3:26AM May 5, 2019
    Art is a known forum troll you should ignore anything they write.

    Interesting.. but that guy is right.. not mention that something simillar happended before my first leave from game (due to lack of time).. They threw away free epic items from hard dungeons idk for who or which req it had to be but they did.. It helped a few players which are now hardcore ones here...

    And again have true that game have less to offer than before because now your only destiny in game is run dungeons to get somewhere.. for such big world is big disappointment, but i won't talk about it again it was disccused many times... They need to show in future if they wanna chance path of current side content state or not and all future things like new gear, dungeons,new story are just temporary injections if they won't change this big error which was at released of game...

    This game don't offer things which would change newcomer or casual player to come back to game and be long runner of the game
  • IllIIlIllIIl
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    Hersik wrote: »
    They threw away free epic items from hard dungeons idk for who

    The reason why they did that is because they wanted to move on with the content and ensure that as many people as possible are able to play the new stuff.

    Now this wouldn't have been a problem if the game took a more nonlinear approach to progression but that's not the model they chose to go with. As it stands right now the game will continue to be nothing but a small endgame designed for the hardcore players with a bunch of free "handouts" every time they want to bring the content "to the next level".
  • iinfernoiinferno
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    Came back to check the game after the latest changes and reading these claims on how much the population has increased only to find my server emptier than before my old guild disbanded and nobody i knew playing anymore.
    Literally 4 parties on Party Finder, which were +15 only Balrog, 2 Cpap and one run seller... this was during Saturday.

    The changes on the gems are good IMO but still doesn't make it appealing for new or returning players. I still see some bigger problems that the devs don't seem to acknowledge at all.

    If it was up to me i'd start by removing all Weekly caps, make character bound items into account bound and maybe rebalance the drops. People spend money to dress up their Mains and customize them only to be able to use them a few days and be locked up from using them the rest of the week because of the dungeon cap.... i would not spend money on something i won't be able to use as much as i'd like.

    Start banning all run sellers, i did not care at first but is a problem nonetheless, fresh level 50 players are literally locked out of all hard dungeons and raids unless they pay unreasonable amounts of money for gear and then pay to get carried ( not knowing the raid mechanincs will get them kicked regardless of gear ).

    This leaves new people with 2 options, either quit or pay up stupid amounts of money that none can afford unless they buy them from mesos selling websites so they are forced to risk an account ban in order to play the game LOL.

    Now i've read the usual answer "find some friends to play" that could have worked before but not in this current state with the lack of population.... New player hits level 50 > has to find 3 more people to run HD > has to gear up > find another 7 to run and learn raids... it's unreasonable right now and people will most likely quit and never come back.

    Now when new content arrives with new raids, dungeons and untradable gear, run selling will become even worse because people will take advantage of the gear being untradable once again and start charging everyone hundreds of millions further killing off whatever population is left.

    Itd also be great to have a Solo mode for all dungeons with enemy stats scaled to 1 player like other MMOs have so people don't have to depend on parties as much.



    IllIIlDefraglife
  • IllIIlIllIIl
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    iinferno wrote: »
    New player hits level 50 > has to find 3 more people to run HD > has to gear up > find another 7 to run and learn raids...

    This is actually not the way to do it, the "correct" way would be:

    new player hits level 50 -> unlocks the sky fortress vendors -> buys epic gear with the vendor tokens -> farms 30 easy normal dungeons like the one with the Vayar -> repeat with another char untill you have enough cash to buy epic accessories / legendary gear (with all purple (dual piercing / BD / whatever your class needs) bonus attributes) and upgrade the weapon to +10 -> join HDs with your main in order to get gems / unlock accessory slots and repeat the previous step with your alts

    ^ this of course is extremely unintuitive but it is the most efficient way to gear up if you're a new player.
    Bulbasaur
  • iinfernoiinferno
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    IllIIl wrote: »
    iinferno wrote: »
    New player hits level 50 > has to find 3 more people to run HD > has to gear up > find another 7 to run and learn raids...

    This is actually not the way to do it, the "correct" way would be:

    new player hits level 50 -> unlocks the sky fortress vendors -> buys epic gear with the vendor tokens -> farms 30 easy normal dungeons like the one with the Vayar -> repeat with another char untill you have enough cash to buy epic accessories / legendary gear (with all purple (dual piercing / BD / whatever your class needs) bonus attributes) and upgrade the weapon to +10 -> join HDs with your main in order to get gems / unlock accessory slots and repeat the previous step with your alts

    ^ this of course is extremely unintuitive but it is the most efficient way to gear up if you're a new player.

    Thanks for the correction, it used to be like that before the changes but your method above is far better.

    Although the issue is still there, alt farming needs to be fixed by removing dungeon cap, they need to let people play their mains to make money and not have to rely on 5-10 alts in order to keep up... thats just anti-fun and unintuitive as you said.

    Getting locked out of meaningful content after 30 dungeons is a reason for many to not come back.
  • ÄrtÄrt
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    edited 11:58AM May 10, 2019
    Art is a known forum troll you should ignore anything they write.

    You are known as forum troll, nothing you say should ever be paid any attention to because it's all aimed at getting everything for free and you proved that.

    There we go, increases across the board. Everything red. Strangely I can't see those increases in game either, apparently only magical paid sites show it.

    2Q3lltq.png

    Although the issue is still there, alt farming needs to be fixed by removing dungeon cap, they need to let people play their mains to make money and not have to rely on 5-10 alts in order to keep up... thats just anti-fun and unintuitive as you said.

    Getting locked out of meaningful content after 30 dungeons is a reason for many to not come back.

    Personally I hate alt farming but with current situation in this game, dungeons/raid is all that's left to do. I'm afraid that removing cap would lead to many people farming everything there is to farm at extremely efficient rate. Basically 2 weeks of that and ud have all onyx you would ever need. At that point ud have nothing else to do, it would also cause onyx to drop in value. Maybe to the point where it's not even efficient to grind dungeons anymore. There is just no content in this game and those limits are there to slow you down and stretch it.


    DefraglifeBulbasaur
  • BulbasaurBulbasaur
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    edited 7:20PM May 10, 2019
    Ärt wrote: »
    There we go, increases across the board. Everything red. Strangely I can't see those increases in game either, apparently only magical paid sites show it.

    Their argument is that although the Steam concurrent players is ~1k throughout the day, the total number of players who log in daily (on Steam) is over 100k, which I call bs. But since WantSumCandy said "player count has increased by over 100X pre update" (assuming they meant daily users), then according to them the total players who log on daily on Steam was less than 1k pre-update, and jumped to 100k+. However, since the peak daily concurrent users pre-update on Steam was more than 1k, we know this cannot be true. So either there is some information WantSumCandy is omitting, or they're being purposefully vague with their explanation and numbers, or their math is bs. Even if we assume the 100X increase is true, the concurrent daily user count was relatively stagnant, so therefore they would have to make some assumptions like players on Steam now play on average less than 100th of the time they did before to compensate, or the game brought back many players who logged on very briefly during the first day/week such that these numbers would only result in a small increase in the Steam concurrent user count (e.g. many players logging on for a few seconds throughout the day at different times causing only a small rise in the concurrent user count), both of which I call bs.
  • IinkIink
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    I'm scared to go on with only 1000 steam players. I'm scared to see a dead and empty game.