Check out the patch notes for the v17 Precursor Update here: http://maplestory2.nexon.net/en/news/article/53778/precursor-update-v17

I predict this game can't last past 2019

Comments

  • StellaeoraStellaeora
    MapleStory 2 Rep: 1,450
    Posts: 106
    Member
    edited 8:46AM February 5, 2019
    @Bulbasaur

    Your criticism of MS1's game design is not telling me anything I do not already know. Given that several years ago I used to develop, design, and host multiple private servers for MS1, I would say I know far more about MS1's internals and history than even you do (which seems to be quite a lot already).

    I'm pretty sure we've already had the exact discussion about old MS1 versus new MS1 versus MS2 game design in another thread and I have no interest in rehashing it here. I find annoying but relatively short RNG walls far more preferable to arbitrarily large level grind walls. It is a preference and I do not think we're going to convince each other about preferences so let's save the effort.

    But, two things:
    However, idiots who were nothing more than white knights and Nexon defenders kept downplaying these people's opinions
    Calling people who have differing opinions on game design "idiots" accomplishes nothing. I firmly believe that old MS1 would not work as a game in 2019. Its flaws are numerous and glaring.

    Secondly,
    MS1 used to house a staunch and steadily increasing playerbase (upwards 100k active players), and then it plummeted to ~15k in a few short years after all this equipment progression crap entered the game.
    To a certain extent, you are correct. However, it is important to note that populations for every MMO that has been around for over 10 years have dropped enormously when comparing values from today versus 12 years ago. This isn't due to the games themselves, this is due to market saturation. 12 years ago the MMO genre was still in its infancy and the novelty hadn't quite worn off yet, so there were only a few large MMOs that attracted a lion's share of players. But nowadays, there are countless MMOs and new releases are coming out by the week if not by the day. People have a vastly larger selection of games to choose from, and with the gaming market itself broadening over the past 20 years from just kids and teenagers to now including people of every age, circumstances have changed.

    You are correct to attribute a decline in MS1's playerbase to its game design problems. You are not correct to consider it the sole, or even the most important factor. Even if MapleStory 1 was the platonically perfect ideal of an MMO that somehow managed to captivate every single player (read: impossible) it would never be able to reach its release numbers 13 years ago. It just wouldn't happen. There are far too many other options on the market now for MapleStory to be even a particularly large MMO compared to how it used to be.

    This is not a pattern exclusive to MapleStory. Runescape, World of Warcraft, and every other big name MMO you could name has dramatically lower populations than they did in their heyday 10 years ago. And not all of them have "design" problems.
    LuminaEdge
  • BulbasaurBulbasaur
    MapleStory 2 Rep: 2,525
    Posts: 233
    Member
    edited 10:59AM February 5, 2019
    Stellaeora wrote: »
    Your criticism of MS1's game design is not telling me anything I do not already know.

    Your whole post indicates that you do not know the relevant concepts and nuances affecting the game design. Take for example:
    Stellaeora wrote: »
    I find annoying but relatively short RNG walls far more preferable to arbitrarily large level grind walls. It is a preference and I do not think we're going to convince each other about preferences so let's save the effort.
    Stellaeora wrote: »
    Its flaws are numerous and glaring.

    If you did know what the nuances were, you would understand
    1. it's not actually about "RNG walls" vs "level grind walls" (there are clear cut, objective reasons for a leveling system other than "preference");
    2. it's not about old MS1's flaws (because they CAN be fixed).

    Do you know what's the major difference between old MS1 and current MS1 and MS2 in terms of gameplay? A leveling system compared to an equipment based progression system that mimics a leveling system. Do you have justifications for one being better than the other? If so, what are they? Can you name some flaws in old MS1? If you can list some, and one of your listed flaws are "old MS1 was a long boring grind fest" do you know that that's not actually a valid reason for why the current game design will thrive over old MS1? If you actually do know, then I will give you credit.
    Stellaeora wrote: »
    Calling people who have differing opinions on game design "idiots" accomplishes nothing.

    No it accomplishes nothing, but some "opinions" are just so irrational that it's hard to not point them out. Labeling everything as "opinions" doesn't reflect the research and critical thinking involved in a discussion topic. It could be your "opinion" that mass immigration is "white racial genocide", or alternative medicine and prayer works.
    Stellaeora wrote: »
    However, it is important to note that populations for every MMO that has been around for over 10 years have dropped enormously when comparing values from today versus 12 years ago. This isn't due to the games themselves, this is due to market saturation. 12 years ago the MMO genre was still in its infancy and the novelty hadn't quite worn off yet, so there were only a few large MMOs that attracted a lion's share of players. But nowadays, there are countless MMOs and new releases are coming out by the week if not by the day. People have a vastly larger selection of games to choose from, and with the gaming market itself broadening over the past 20 years from just kids and teenagers to now including people of every age, circumstances have changed.

    You are correct to attribute a decline in MS1's playerbase to its game design problems. You are not correct to consider it the sole, or even the most important factor. Even if MapleStory 1 was the platonically perfect ideal of an MMO that somehow managed to captivate every single player (read: impossible) it would never be able to reach its release numbers 13 years ago. It just wouldn't happen. There are far too many other options on the market now for MapleStory to be even a particularly large MMO compared to how it used to be.

    This is not a pattern exclusive to MapleStory. Runescape, World of Warcraft, and every other big name MMO you could name has dramatically lower populations than they did in their heyday 10 years ago. And not all of them have "design" problems.

    Firstly, I did not claim game design was the sole reason for MS1's decline. Secondly, you don't seem to realize that in determining the reason for a game's decline, we need to look at the trend. We know MS1 maintained a strong playerbase (130k+ players at its peak during Big Bang). Furthermore, we know (although the validity of a source can be debated) that there was a drastic decrease in player count in just a few short years, to around 15-20k players. We know that certain major updates happened during those short years.

    Here are several rough sketches denoting possible trends:
    AmILaOs.png

    Which trend did MS1 likely follow? (a) and (b). If the reason for the game's decline was "market saturation", we would expect a slower naturally decaying exponential function. Why did MS1 follow such drastic declines as indicated in (a) and (b)? Two main possible reasons:
    1. There was a drastic shift in gaming which likely resulted in many games having the same trend
    2. Several game changes were implemented that made the game boring for many people, so they quit
    Do you have any evidence for reason 1? If not, the more likely and rationally justified scenario would be 2.

    Bonus question: Can you explain the peak in 2010 shortly (a few months) after Big Bang was released?

    Thirdly, you are absolutely incorrect about games like RuneScape and WoW. According to Wikipedia, WoW had 12m subscribers in 2010 and about 5m in 2015. This is still a significant amount. MS1 had about one tenth to one fifth of its peak in just a few short years. RuneScape's peak was ~200k daily active players. It's still maintaining an active ~100k-120k players mostly from OSRS. When EOC (a flawed game design that almost nobody wanted) hit, the population plummeted. OSRS was brought back and the player count started returning. 50-60% of its original peak is still a very significant amount. It's even increasing as we speak with a constant stream of updates. MS2 has about 5% of its peak and this number is lowering by the day.
    Liliac
  • PinkFoxxyPinkFoxxy
    MapleStory 2 Rep: 1,090
    Posts: 66
    Member
    Bulbasaur wrote: »
    Steam

    "steam" case closed

    LuminaEdgeMieh
  • SlimefaceSlimeface
    MapleStory 2 Rep: 1,105
    Posts: 106
    Member
    POTENTIALS are ruining ms2 just as they MURDERED ms1.
  • AtriaWulfAtriaWulf
    MapleStory 2 Rep: 610
    Posts: 18
    Member
    nah, it's actually a fun game, and there will be dedicated people. It'll keep the servers going and as they improve the game it'll get more popular.