During the October event period, the Escaped Moon Bunny world boss spawns at the following times:

NA West: 02:30 AM - 05:30 AM UTC
NA East: 11:30 PM - 02:30 AM UTC
South America: 10:30 PM - 01:30 AM UTC
Europe: 5:30 PM - 8:30 PM UTC
Oceania: 08:30 AM – 11:30 AM UTC

I predict this game can't last past 2019

SlimefaceSlimeface
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in General Chat
I predict this game can't last past 2019.
WilBoySuck

Comments

  • LuminaEdgeLuminaEdge
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    Big sry but i seen some truly bad games survive 5 years +

    ur prediction will fail just based on the track record of these awful games.
    WiLBoYDefraglifeMiehkimiMadokaMagicaFleinOneConfusedMilletian
  • BulbasaurBulbasaur
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    LuminaEdge wrote: »
    Big sry but i seen some truly bad games survive 5 years +

    ur prediction will fail just based on the track record of these awful games.

    Steam shows player count halving on average every month for the last 3 months. We're down to 2k peak in just 3 months.
  • LuminaEdgeLuminaEdge
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    Bulbasaur wrote: »
    LuminaEdge wrote: »
    Big sry but i seen some truly bad games survive 5 years +

    ur prediction will fail just based on the track record of these awful games.

    Steam shows player count halving on average every month for the last 3 months. We're down to 2k peak in just 3 months.

    One of the games i have in mind literally has less than 200 players active in the western version and still gets consistent updates. I quit a year and a half ago and am just now falling out of top 100 in xp there. I could actually get back on it in 2 months if i wanted to.

    But yeah It actually takes a lot to kill a mmo server. Much as i want to celebrate when that game closes due to truly awful management and blatant p2w, a few whales can easily keep a server profitable enough to keep open.
  • BulbasaurBulbasaur
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    LuminaEdge wrote: »
    Bulbasaur wrote: »
    LuminaEdge wrote: »
    Big sry but i seen some truly bad games survive 5 years +

    ur prediction will fail just based on the track record of these awful games.

    Steam shows player count halving on average every month for the last 3 months. We're down to 2k peak in just 3 months.

    One of the games i have in mind literally has less than 200 players active in the western version and still gets consistent updates. I quit a year and a half ago and am just now falling out of top 100 in xp there. I could actually get back on it in 2 months if i wanted to.

    But yeah It actually takes a lot to kill a mmo server. Much as i want to celebrate when that game closes due to truly awful management and blatant p2w, a few whales can easily keep a server profitable enough to keep open.

    That's pretty much a dead game.
  • PeepPeep
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    I look forward to seeing you next year Slimeface.

    OneConfusedMilletian
  • BeariieBeariie
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    I remember saying this on the first month of release, many people told me I was wrong, then not even a month later this game's population dropped.
  • LuminaEdgeLuminaEdge
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    Bulbasaur wrote: »
    LuminaEdge wrote: »
    Bulbasaur wrote: »
    LuminaEdge wrote: »
    Big sry but i seen some truly bad games survive 5 years +

    ur prediction will fail just based on the track record of these awful games.

    Steam shows player count halving on average every month for the last 3 months. We're down to 2k peak in just 3 months.

    One of the games i have in mind literally has less than 200 players active in the western version and still gets consistent updates. I quit a year and a half ago and am just now falling out of top 100 in xp there. I could actually get back on it in 2 months if i wanted to.

    But yeah It actually takes a lot to kill a mmo server. Much as i want to celebrate when that game closes due to truly awful management and blatant p2w, a few whales can easily keep a server profitable enough to keep open.

    That's pretty much a dead game.

    it is, and it deserves to be dead. It was never a smash hit and that was okay.

    But once they embraced p2w it truly went downhill to its current sorry state.

    If ms2 starts adding p2w then ill agree with posts like these.
  • Barcode1337Barcode1337
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    edited 3:07PM February 2, 2019
    LuminaEdge wrote: »
    Bulbasaur wrote: »
    LuminaEdge wrote: »
    Bulbasaur wrote: »
    LuminaEdge wrote: »
    Big sry but i seen some truly bad games survive 5 years +

    ur prediction will fail just based on the track record of these awful games.

    Steam shows player count halving on average every month for the last 3 months. We're down to 2k peak in just 3 months.

    One of the games i have in mind literally has less than 200 players active in the western version and still gets consistent updates. I quit a year and a half ago and am just now falling out of top 100 in xp there. I could actually get back on it in 2 months if i wanted to.

    But yeah It actually takes a lot to kill a mmo server. Much as i want to celebrate when that game closes due to truly awful management and blatant p2w, a few whales can easily keep a server profitable enough to keep open.

    That's pretty much a dead game.

    it is, and it deserves to be dead. It was never a smash hit and that was okay.

    But once they embraced p2w it truly went downhill to its current sorry state.

    If ms2 starts adding p2w then ill agree with posts like these.

    Players asked for them to remove p2w and that all of a sudden gave the botting community greater leverage than before. So now you just bot meso and roll perfect stats and there's your p2w. You will NEVER stop botting, simple as that. Prove me wrong. They could have just offered 15$ gears with minor stats that would blow the bots out of the water as bots can never replicate blue merits, unless the websites are literally set up to scam people for USD. But that's no issue. I don't know of any smart bot owner who would reinvest his money to spend on blue merits (that's not the case anyway as there is no blue merit option for stats), instead pull out all of the profits and invest it in real life. Again, my good friend made half a million dollars botting for 6 years on a game and down paid a house, got a car, married and had kids, opened up a legit LLC. He wasn't even the top of the botters. He was some random guy who worked for himself and was hardly the top 10% of people profiting.
  • VisualFxVisualFx
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    LuminaEdge wrote: »
    Bulbasaur wrote: »
    LuminaEdge wrote: »
    Bulbasaur wrote: »
    LuminaEdge wrote: »
    Big sry but i seen some truly bad games survive 5 years +

    ur prediction will fail just based on the track record of these awful games.

    Steam shows player count halving on average every month for the last 3 months. We're down to 2k peak in just 3 months.

    One of the games i have in mind literally has less than 200 players active in the western version and still gets consistent updates. I quit a year and a half ago and am just now falling out of top 100 in xp there. I could actually get back on it in 2 months if i wanted to.

    But yeah It actually takes a lot to kill a mmo server. Much as i want to celebrate when that game closes due to truly awful management and blatant p2w, a few whales can easily keep a server profitable enough to keep open.

    That's pretty much a dead game.

    it is, and it deserves to be dead. It was never a smash hit and that was okay.

    But once they embraced p2w it truly went downhill to its current sorry state.

    If ms2 starts adding p2w then ill agree with posts like these.

    Players asked for them to remove p2w and that all of a sudden gave the botting community greater leverage than before. So now you just bot meso and roll perfect stats and there's your p2w. You will NEVER stop botting, simple as that. Prove me wrong. They could have just offered 15$ gears with minor stats that would blow the bots out of the water as bots can never replicate blue merits, unless the websites are literally set up to scam people for USD. But that's no issue. I don't know of any smart bot owner who would reinvest his money to spend on blue merits (that's not the case anyway as there is no blue merit option for stats), instead pull out all of the profits and invest it in real life. Again, my good friend made half a million dollars botting for 6 years on a game and down paid a house, got a car, married and had kids, opened up a legit LLC. He wasn't even the top of the botters. He was some random guy who worked for himself and was hardly the top 10% of people profiting.

    ok well as a confirmed botter myself and self-admitted I can re-assure you that your friend DID NOT do any of those things from botting in ANY game :). The only reason I keep saying the game is going to die is because I personally have told/reported to Nexon about a meso exploit (which still isnt fixed) and how they've been injecting the more recent hacks. Because now Nexon checks your programs running in the background (which has also lead to a lot of false bans) which killed the population even more. But they never respond to me and they never address the issues. When management of the game is doing absolutely nothing to fix the biggest issues in the game especially exploits I consider it dead.
    SilverSkyway
  • RedSprite000RedSprite000
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    VisualFx wrote: »
    LuminaEdge wrote: »
    Bulbasaur wrote: »
    LuminaEdge wrote: »
    Bulbasaur wrote: »
    LuminaEdge wrote: »
    Big sry but i seen some truly bad games survive 5 years +

    ur prediction will fail just based on the track record of these awful games.

    Steam shows player count halving on average every month for the last 3 months. We're down to 2k peak in just 3 months.

    One of the games i have in mind literally has less than 200 players active in the western version and still gets consistent updates. I quit a year and a half ago and am just now falling out of top 100 in xp there. I could actually get back on it in 2 months if i wanted to.

    But yeah It actually takes a lot to kill a mmo server. Much as i want to celebrate when that game closes due to truly awful management and blatant p2w, a few whales can easily keep a server profitable enough to keep open.

    That's pretty much a dead game.

    it is, and it deserves to be dead. It was never a smash hit and that was okay.

    But once they embraced p2w it truly went downhill to its current sorry state.

    If ms2 starts adding p2w then ill agree with posts like these.

    Players asked for them to remove p2w and that all of a sudden gave the botting community greater leverage than before. So now you just bot meso and roll perfect stats and there's your p2w. You will NEVER stop botting, simple as that. Prove me wrong. They could have just offered 15$ gears with minor stats that would blow the bots out of the water as bots can never replicate blue merits, unless the websites are literally set up to scam people for USD. But that's no issue. I don't know of any smart bot owner who would reinvest his money to spend on blue merits (that's not the case anyway as there is no blue merit option for stats), instead pull out all of the profits and invest it in real life. Again, my good friend made half a million dollars botting for 6 years on a game and down paid a house, got a car, married and had kids, opened up a legit LLC. He wasn't even the top of the botters. He was some random guy who worked for himself and was hardly the top 10% of people profiting.

    ok well as a confirmed botter myself and self-admitted I can re-assure you that your friend DID NOT do any of those things from botting in ANY game :). The only reason I keep saying the game is going to die is because I personally have told/reported to Nexon about a meso exploit (which still isnt fixed) and how they've been injecting the more recent hacks. Because now Nexon checks your programs running in the background (which has also lead to a lot of false bans) which killed the population even more. But they never respond to me and they never address the issues. When management of the game is doing absolutely nothing to fix the biggest issues in the game especially exploits I consider it dead.

    lmao is I got a long ban because of that got false banned and couldn't play this game for over a month, they finally unbanned me but i see that the game is dead. Can't even level my ult cause no1 does anything besides tris.
  • SlimefaceSlimeface
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    There are too many issues with the fundamental mechanics of the game...it may work in Korea, but it just wont work in the U.S unless they hard focus on casual gameplay. At the moment, the dungeon party focus is destroying the game very fast.
  • RedSprite000RedSprite000
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    Slimeface wrote: »
    There are too many issues with the fundamental mechanics of the game...it may work in Korea, but it just wont work in the U.S unless they hard focus on casual gameplay. At the moment, the dungeon party focus is destroying the game very fast.
    Slimeface wrote: »
    There are too many issues with the fundamental mechanics of the game...it may work in Korea, but it just wont work in the U.S unless they hard focus on casual gameplay. At the moment, the dungeon party focus is destroying the game very fast.

    Might be too late this game is already done at this rate. Changes that should have been on release is barely getting addressed now. Nexon had it's chance. I feel like I'mplaying with less than 200 ppl when i got on today. Maybe 500 if i count the AFKers and bots.
  • CalindelCalindel
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    edited 12:28AM February 3, 2019
    Its hard to say a game will actually shut down though b/c theirs always a small handful of whales that will spend 2-3 thousand US dollars per month on the game regardless of how bad it is.

    This is how Tree of Savior survived for over 3 years with less then 1.8k average players over the time span.

    With the extreme gold buyers this game has, moreso in the top guilds, (those guys that had 3 socket Kandura's Pendant on like day 6 of month 1....)I can see this game making it a few years with 1.5k average players.

    The game is so horribly designed that between itself and the cannabalistic, toxic community which feeds on itself and forces new players to pay for content many of the remaining players spend real life money in 1 form or another.

    Again though, it is very sad that this game is being run into the ground by an absolute tone def development team led by Jungso. People have all said the EXACT SAME THING for 3 months and they continue to not budge or stall on fixing the core problem of this game, the RNG based gear progression, the RNG penetrates every single layer of the game even down to gathering materials via life skills.

    I still though in my 20 years of online games have never seen a game lose this many people this quickly.

    Shame on you devs, and to any Maplers left, hold on tight, its going to be nothing but blatent cash grabs from here on out to try to stop the bleeding, dont be foolish.
  • LuminaEdgeLuminaEdge
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    LuminaEdge wrote: »
    Bulbasaur wrote: »
    LuminaEdge wrote: »
    Bulbasaur wrote: »
    LuminaEdge wrote: »
    Big sry but i seen some truly bad games survive 5 years +

    ur prediction will fail just based on the track record of these awful games.

    Steam shows player count halving on average every month for the last 3 months. We're down to 2k peak in just 3 months.

    One of the games i have in mind literally has less than 200 players active in the western version and still gets consistent updates. I quit a year and a half ago and am just now falling out of top 100 in xp there. I could actually get back on it in 2 months if i wanted to.

    But yeah It actually takes a lot to kill a mmo server. Much as i want to celebrate when that game closes due to truly awful management and blatant p2w, a few whales can easily keep a server profitable enough to keep open.

    That's pretty much a dead game.

    it is, and it deserves to be dead. It was never a smash hit and that was okay.

    But once they embraced p2w it truly went downhill to its current sorry state.

    If ms2 starts adding p2w then ill agree with posts like these.

    Players asked for them to remove p2w and that all of a sudden gave the botting community greater leverage than before. So now you just bot meso and roll perfect stats and there's your p2w. You will NEVER stop botting, simple as that. Prove me wrong. They could have just offered 15$ gears with minor stats that would blow the bots out of the water as bots can never replicate blue merits, unless the websites are literally set up to scam people for USD. But that's no issue. I don't know of any smart bot owner who would reinvest his money to spend on blue merits (that's not the case anyway as there is no blue merit option for stats), instead pull out all of the profits and invest it in real life. Again, my good friend made half a million dollars botting for 6 years on a game and down paid a house, got a car, married and had kids, opened up a legit LLC. He wasn't even the top of the botters. He was some random guy who worked for himself and was hardly the top 10% of people profiting.

    I havent spent a dime on progression in this game despite botters and never will.

    Cash only stats require me personally to do so.

    if not buying meso means i wait a bit longer to clear cpap thats fine. Other games require you to spend money to even stand a chance at content.

    Thats the kind of p2w that killed the other game. Imagine if epic pets were only obtainable through rng boxes like style crates at a low rate and the supply in black market was dictated by how many whales invested into the game.

    I really dont give a crap about people being dumb enough to buy meso as long as i can get my stuff without relying on whale economy.
  • Barcode1337Barcode1337
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    LuminaEdge wrote: »

    I havent spent a dime on progression in this game despite botters and never will.

    Cash only stats require me personally to do so.

    if not buying meso means i wait a bit longer to clear cpap thats fine. Other games require you to spend money to even stand a chance at content.

    Thats the kind of p2w that killed the other game. Imagine if epic pets were only obtainable through rng boxes like style crates at a low rate and the supply in black market was dictated by how many whales invested into the game.

    I really dont give a crap about people being dumb enough to buy meso as long as i can get my stuff without relying on whale economy.

    I agree, I already know a lot about the botting industry, just wait for the next release. A lot of people have short sighted thinking and it's only natural to want everything immediately.
  • StellaeoraStellaeora
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    edited 3:18PM February 4, 2019
    MapleStory 1 has been around for 15 years and could still be reasonably considered active even now. There's a decent community both on the Nexon forums and on Reddit for it. New updates for it, both in content and in other improvements, are still coming out regularly.

    This despite MapleStory 1 having far more glaring game design problems and an objectively far worse RNG problem.

    MS2 will stick around. It's not going anywhere, despite what the naysayers hope for. Even if the game population never recovers to its release numbers, at some point it will stabilize around the remaining dedicated playerbase who will keep the lights on for years to come.

    Now, you might consider such a game a dead game. Surely such a game with only a few hundreds of players left could be written off as "dead" for good, yes?

    Having played private servers for various games with populations in the mere double digits, I disagree. What will instead happen as the playerbase shrinks is just people concentrating more. Server merges will happen, guilds will stratify and merge and people will just keep going. There will never be a time when you'll log on and find that the place is a totally deserted ghost town; there'll always be a community still playing, somewhere. That's how it goes with basically any game with any sort of social element at all, until you get to the single-digit player count at which point the game finally sputters out and dies for good. But we're at least ten years from that point, if it will ever happen at all.
    LuminaEdgeOneConfusedMilletian
  • WiLBoYWiLBoY
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    Stellaeora wrote: »
    MapleStory 1 has been around for 15 years and could still be reasonably considered active even now. There's a decent community both on the Nexon forums and on Reddit for it. New updates for it, both in content and in other improvements, are still coming out regularly.

    This despite MapleStory 1 having far more glaring game design problems and an objectively far worse RNG problem.

    MS2 will stick around. It's not going anywhere, despite what the naysayers hope for. Even if the game population never recovers to its release numbers, at some point it will stabilize around the remaining dedicated playerbase who will keep the lights on for years to come.

    Now, you might consider such a game a dead game. Surely such a game with only a few hundreds of players left could be written off as "dead" for good, yes?

    Having played private servers for various games with populations in the mere double digits, I disagree. What will instead happen as the playerbase shrinks is just people concentrating more. Server merges will happen, guilds will stratify and merge and people will just keep going. There will never be a time when you'll log on and find that the place is a totally deserted ghost town; there'll always be a community still playing, somewhere. That's how it goes with basically any game with any sort of social element at all, until you get to the single-digit player count at which point the game finally sputters out and dies for good. But we're at least ten years from that point, if it will ever happen at all.

    Pretty much. The vets that stay will stay regardless of what happens. New players will join and the population will become a revolving door.
  • BulbasaurBulbasaur
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    edited 1:05AM February 5, 2019
    Stellaeora wrote: »
    MapleStory 1 has been around for 15 years and could still be reasonably considered active even now. There's a decent community both on the Nexon forums and on Reddit for it. New updates for it, both in content and in other improvements, are still coming out regularly.

    This despite MapleStory 1 having far more glaring game design problems and an objectively far worse RNG problem.

    Only reason why MS1 is still "active" is because it has more bosses, more maps, more classes, and a more in depth storyline. The keyword is more. Throw in a few dozen more classes, 20 more bosses, Ascendant and higher tier equipment, more enhancement options that increase your damage ("Star Force"), and a storyline associated with each boss and you have almost an exact replica of MS1 in terms of game design, but with more regulation and hand holding for progression ("Gear Score", equipment sacrifice obtainable from boss drops).

    However the actual game design and gameplay is crap. Both MS1 and MS2 (the latter adapting the former's design) are based on a monotonous boss-equipment-boss-equipment rinse and repeat cycle with absolutely no concept of stat balancing (brought to you by an equipment based and more importantly damage orientated progression system), skill, strategy, role playing (except maybe for MS2 where knights or priests are still somewhat favorable), exploration, and social aspects like trade. You killed Balrog? Congrats, here's your first epic weapon. Now kill it 100 more times and get it to +15 so you can do Chaos raids. Oh, you killed Cpap? Congrats, here's your Legendary weapon, now repeat the same process. Next they will add "harder" bosses (i.e. bosses with HPs higher by an order than the previous tier), and Ascendant gear to have you repeat the same process. And then, once you're done, they will create even higher tier equipment and even "harder" bosses than the last tier (with HPs higher by an order compared to the last). They'll also sprinkle in a few additional damage boosting attributes like %boss or %pierce, and sockets, on every piece of accessory and armor so that they can up the threshold (i.e. increase the HP of bosses) to require the player to work more (so that the game becomes more "challenging"), while being blissfully unaware that this furthers the discrepancy between players and does more harm than good.

    In MS1, these ideas are much more severe and ubiquitous (many more item slots that serve to increase your damage, overpowered set effects, upwards +30% boss and % attack on many pieces of equipment, 100+ attack shoes/capes/belts/whatever the hell they have now, scrolls, Star Force i.e. just another version of scrolling to further your damage and allow Nexon to push for higher thresholds on bosses, potential, etc., and a community that doesn't care about others particularly weak players as a result of such a large imbalance). It takes a person hitting 1b+ per line at least several minutes to kill some of the harder bosses, so if you're hitting 1m per line on MS1 then good luck. Moreover, Nexon is pushing the HP threshold for bosses up and up (so that the 1b+ hitters will have something "challenging" to to look forward to), making starting players with less than 1m damage spend many eons to catch up due to such a large crafted imbalance. And what do you do once you cube and enhance your gear so that you have enough damage to kill the said bosses? Ahh yes, here's more cubes for you to improve your damage so that you can kill the same boss faster, or a higher tier equipment like this Black Mage drop for you to repeat the same process. Next we'll be introducing an even "tougher" boss Darmoor and even higher level equipment (with much more damage) so that you can repeat the same process like what we're doing with MS2 but harder. How exciting. In MS1 if you aren't in Reboot, you also PAY for RNG like cubes.

    MS1 used to house a staunch and steadily increasing playerbase (upwards 100k active players), and then it plummeted to ~15k in a few short years after all this equipment progression crap entered the game. And why wouldn't it? There is nothing good about the game aside from a developed storyline. Lack of utilization of the game world, one dimensional stat progression system, extreme stat and player imbalance, little to no skill or strategy, no trade whatsoever (unless you are in a non Reboot world where you can have the opportunity to trade once, for a few bucks), lack of class roles, little to no class "uniqueness", redundant party play, and toxic/"solo" mentality as a result. Nexon relies on a constant stream of updates and "events" to coax players into staying. MS2 is clearly steering towards that direction.

    Once upon a time, players vouched for an "old school" Maple server, or for the game to revert back to the "old days" because they recognized that a leveling/exploration based game (in which "old school" Maple more closely resembled) avoided all the aforementioned issues, and proper stat balancing, player skill, strategy, role playing, team work, and other social aspects like item trading, allows for a diverse and fun MMO experience. However, idiots who were nothing more than white knights and Nexon defenders kept downplaying these people's opinions by irrationally and incorrectly claiming they were just "nostalgic" or they "only liked the community aspect" (not realizing that the community is actually shaped by the game's design). These people, who for the life of them aren't capable of thinking beyond "BuT LVLing was SOoo sl0w in old Maple :((((((", use that rationale to defend a crappy game design. You're left now with a handful of players namely those who think such a game design is good, if they even think or have thought about it at all.
    Stellaeora wrote: »
    Server merges will happen

    Unless all characters retain their names and a label is placed adjacent to each name listed in a search box to denote the original server, this will just piss people off. I almost guarantee that those with the name "Alice" or "Bob", or a common one word name will unleash a diatribe against Nexon on the forum and likely quit once they see their character's name has been changed. I won't hold my breath in anticipation of Nexon actually doing the right thing when it comes down to having a server merge.
  • WiLBoYWiLBoY
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    You're comparing a new game that came out a few months ago to a game that's been out for years.

    Crazy
  • FeverJawsFeverJaws
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    This game will survive for years. look at Ms1. barely anyone plays it and those that do is using hacks to progress. and also Maplestory 2 is still alive in korea and has been for quite a long time.

    this game will prob survive til 2025. or later depends on alot of things obviously but Maplestory 2 is Young and Maplestory 1 is not. Ms 1 had time to mature Ms 2 has not.